1143 Key substitution opportunities in the mining value chain include: – On-site and backup power generation: gas replacing diesel-based systems improves both emissions performance and cost stability. – Transport and logistics: CNG for light and medium vehicles, and LNG for heavy-duty and longdistance operations, can progressively displace diesel. – Thermal and metallurgical processes: natural gas can substitute fuel oil in smelting, refining, drying, and steam generation, offering advantages in combustion control and heat quality. 5.2 Quantified Emissions Impact Table 26 — Avoided CO₂e Emissions: Scenario with and without Natural Gas (2005–2030) Scenario Total 2005–2023 (Mt CO₂e) Total 2024–2030 (Mt CO₂e) Grand Total (Mt CO₂e) With Natural Gas 255.65 128.72 384.37 Without Natural Gas 302.51 183.56 486.07 Avoided emissions 46.86 54.84 101.70 Percentage reduction 15.49% 29.87% 20.92% Source: Libélula (2024), based on Peru’s national energy balance data. Note: This study was commissioned by the Camisea Consortium. The underlying energy balance data are drawn from official Peruvian government statistics; readers should be aware of the commissioning context when interpreting the counterfactual scenarios. Table 27 — Avoided Local Pollutant Emissions: Scenario with and without Natural Gas (2005– 2030) Pollutant With Gas (Mt) Without Gas (Mt) Avoided (Mt) Reduction (%) NOₓ (2005–2030) 0.94 2.50 1.57 62.8% SO₂ (2005–2030) 0.11 1.34 1.24 92.0% PM 2.5 (2005–2030) 0.03 0.14 0.11 76.4% Source: Libélula (2024). Note: This study was commissioned by the Camisea Consortium; the underlying emissions data derive from official Peruvian government statistics. The reductions in NOₓ, SO₂, and particulate matter are particularly significant for underground mining operations, where air quality directly affects worker health and safety. They also reduce environmental impact in surrounding communities — a factor directly relevant to maintaining the social license to operate that Peruvian mining projects require. Peru’s history of mining-community conflict, which has delayed or terminated multiple major projects, makes this connection more than incidental. Energy transition strategies that incorporate measurable air quality improvements into community engagement are more likely to achieve the social acceptance that determines project longevity.
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