1145 Two risks deserve particular emphasis. If domestic gas production peaks materially before 2040, the Camisea reserve horizon needs to be addressed by tapping into blocs 57 and 58, waiting to be exploited. Moreover, monitoring reserve profiles and promoting upstream investment conditions must be a policy priority. Reassessing upstream investment policies to attract private investment is urgent and necessary. Methane management is equally critical and equally under-discussed. The climate advantage of switching from diesel to gas is real but not unconditional: it depends on keeping methane leakage rates below approximately 3.2% of gas produced on a 20-year global warming potential basis. Investment in methane measurement and mitigation is therefore a prerequisite for the credibility of the entire strategy, not an optional improvement. 6. GUIDELINES FOR A BALANCED MINING TRANSITION IN PERU, 2026–2040 The transition toward lower-emission energy systems in mining is fundamentally a problem of system design, not technology selection. For Peru, the challenge is to design an integrated energy architecture that minimizes the total cost of delivered, reliable energy while achieving verifiable emissions reductions — and to sequence that design in a way that builds capability rather than creating lock-in. Four design principles should govern this process: – Deliverability and reliability as binding constraints. Mining operations require energy that is continuously available not only under normal conditions but also during credible contingency scenarios. Energy solutions should be assessed based on their performance during periods of greatest system stress—specifically, during peak hours in the dry season—rather than based on average annual metrics. – Total cost of delivered energy, not generation cost alone. As renewable penetration increases, system-level costs — network constraints, reserve requirements, balancing services, curtailment risks — become more significant. A low-cost energy source that cannot be reliably delivered is not, in practice, a competitive solution. – Sequencing over simultaneity. Energy transitions encounter difficulties when technologies are deployed ahead of the institutional, logistical, or operational conditions required to support them. Prioritize high-feasibility measures before scaling more complex solutions. 6.1 Phased Implementation Roadmap The following roadmap translates these principles into concrete phases with defined objectives and priority actions. Table 7 — Phased Implementation Roadmap: 2026–2040 Phase 1: Foundation (2026–2028) Objective: Reduce high-cost fuel exposure; build data and operational capabilities. 1. Progressive substitution of diesel in stationary generation and thermal uses. 2. Structure renewable PPAs complemented by gas-backed firming mechanisms. 3. Establish Scope 1 and Scope 2 MRV systems as audit-ready capabilities. 4. Commission infrastructure gap assessment for the full Camisea value chain. 5. Evaluate physical deliverability of all energy sources to mine sites. 6. Engage anchor demand negotiations to catalyze pipeline or LNG investment in southern Peru.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM0Mzk2