1353 PHASING OUT COAL IN EL CESAR (COLOMBIA): TOWARDS A JUST SOCIOECONOMIC TRANSITION Jeanette Moreno Torres 1, Guillén Calvo Valderrama2 1Strategic Partnerships and Knowledge Management Director, Colombia, jeanette.moreno@insuco.com 2Executive Director, Colombia, guillen.calvo@insuco.com Insuco Center for Social Innovation (ICSI) ABSTRACT Colombia has historically been the lead exporter in Latin America of thermal coal. However, as high-income countries phase out fossil fuels, and carbon demand begins to plateau, Colombia is facing important changes in its economy, with a sharp fall of 20% in coal production projected. El Cesar is the leading region of coal production, representing 53.8% of the national total, where coal royalties account for 35% of total tax revenue. The abrupt cessation of operations by major mining groups, marked by the early surrender of mining titles, has already affected over 15,000 direct and indirect jobs, highlighting the region's vulnerability. This paper proposes a Multistakeholder Governance Model designed by the Insuco Center for Social Innovation (ICSI) to facilitate a Just Energy Transition (JET). Through the implementation of Observatories of Territorial Transformations (OTT), the model uses a knowledge management platform to shift from passive monitoring to social appropriation of data. Using mixed methods, the approach empowers local communities to make informed decisions. KEYWORDS Just Energy Transition, Coal Mining, El Cesar, Territorial Governance, Data-Driven Decision Making. 1. CONTEXT AND PROBLEM STATEMENT Globally, thermal coal mining is facing a structural crisis driven by the decarbonization mandate to mitigate climate change. Guidelines from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) state that, to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the production of this mineral must decrease annually by 11% (SEI, IISD, ODI, E3G, & UNEP, 2020). This scenario has redirected capital flows toward renewable energies, reaching record investments of USD 358 billion in 2023 (Roca, 2023). However, the sector faces a geopolitical contradiction: in 2022, global demand increased by 8.2%, driven by industrial growth in Asia, where countries like China and India increased their production (Fenalcarbón, 2024). While G7 economies commit to phasing out coal between 2030 and 2035, the persistence of emerging markets creates a scenario of high uncertainty for exporting countries. In this landscape, Colombia has committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 51% by 2030 (Government of Colombia, 2021). Although the country contributes only 0.57% of global emissions, World Bank estimates indicate that the transition to a low-carbon economy will represent a cost of approximately USD 92 billion by 2050 (World Bank Group, 2023). In parallel, projections indicate a 20% drop in national coal production, linked to a potential loss of 10% in export revenues and 6% in government revenues (World Bank, 2024). Within this architecture, the department of El Cesar concentrates 53.8% of national coal production (National Mining Agency [ANM], 2023). Regional economic dependence is significant: royalties derived from this mineral accounted for 35% of the department's total fiscal revenues in the last decade (Herrera et
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