166 C Figure 2 – A) Statistical details of Li-CLR; B) PCA biplot with K-Means clusters; and C) Li concentrations by clusters. 3. RETURN-RISK DECISION MAKING Here the Return-Risk decision-making under uncertainty concept was applied to Li-CLR values (Figure 3), enabling a balanced assessment of lithium “Return” relative to the spatial and statistical “Risk” associated with each sample location. This method provides a structured way to evaluate exploration decisions by explicitly accounting for uncertainty in geochemical datasets. The workflow quantifies both the “Return,” defined as the expected geochemical enrichment or exploration reward, and the “Risk,” which reflects the spatial and statistical uncertainty associated with that enrichment. The method combines frequentist and Bayesian principles to estimate uncertainty, integrates these measures into a unified Return– Risk matrix, and then ranks targets based on their balance between potential reward and reliability. This approach helps distinguish genuinely strong anomalies from those that appear promising but are dominated by uncertainty, making the final decisions more defensible and transparent.
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