2092 7. CASE STUDY A Peruvian mining company is in the process of growth and is evaluating a project in the neighboring country to the south. The board of directors requests a risk analysis based on reserves, mining plan, operating costs, metallurgical recovery, and the price of gold and silver. The first step to begin the analysis is to identify the uncertainty variables and associate them with the type of distribution of the variable involved. Table 1 – Variables and type of distribution Uncertainty Variables Type of distribution Price of Gold Log normal Grade of Gold log normal Metallurgical recovery Triangle Production Triangle Costs Triangle Analysis of Au and Ag prices For the analysis of Au and Ag prices, monthly prices have been considered since 2025 (https://es.investing.com/commodities/silver-historical-data). Table 2 – Au and Ag Prices. Table 3 – Gold Statistics. Table 4 – Silver Statistics Date US $/Oz Au US $/Oz Ag Ene-25 2,845.20 32.49 Feb-25 2,895.90 32.11 Mar-25 3,150.30 34.61 Abr-25 3,319.10 32.83 May-25 3,343.90 33.42 Jun-25 3,307.70 36.17 Jul-25 3,348.60 36.71 Ago-25 3,512.00 40.66 Set-25 3,873.20 46.64 Oct-25 4,015.90 48.62 Nov-25 4,202.30 53.61 Dic-25 4,386.30 77.92 Au 2025 Ag 2025 Mean 3,516.70 Mean 42.15 Stardar error 143.39 Stardar error 3.85 Median 3,346.25 Median 36.44 Mode #N/D Mode #N/D Standard deviation 496.71 Standard deviation 13.33 Sample variance 246,724.05 Sample variance 177.65 Kurtosis -0.81 Kurtosis 4.42 Skewness 0.47 Skewness 2.00 Range 1,541.10 Range 45.81 Minimum 2,845.20 Minimum 32.11 Maximum 4,386.30 Maximum 77.92 Sum 42,200.40 Sum 505.79 Count 12.00 Count 12.00 Correlation Coef. 0.88964979
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