2517 4. FOOD-WATER-ENERGY NEXUS-ORIENTED CRITICALITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY The FWE Nexus-oriented criticality assessment tool provides an upstream framing and prioritization lens. At the policy level, it supports the identification of minerals, thereby informing priority setting, diversification strategies, strategic stockpiling, recycling, and substitution policies. At the project level, the assessment provides an indicative policy signal, whereby minerals assessed as highly critical may warrant sustained policy attention, coordinated permitting approaches, or risk-mitigation measures. It is designed to complement conventional criticality analyses by explicitly integrating considerations of food, water, and energy systems. The methodology supports policy-relevant prioritization of critical minerals in a manner consistent with sustainable resource management principles, as articulated under UNRMS and UNFC. The methodology does not replace existing economic or market-based criticality metrics but broadens the analytical lens to capture systemic importance, resilience, and sustainability. It is intended as a screening-level tool to inform strategic planning, without producing rankings. The tool evaluates criticality across two core dimensions: System Exposure and Supply Risk. System Exposure captures the magnitude of systemic consequences arising from a disruption, while Supply Risk reflects the likelihood, severity, and persistence of such disruptions, explicitly anchored in UNFC classifications. To operationalize this perspective, the FWE Nexus-oriented criticality assessment is structured around two interlinked dimensions. 1. System Exposure: This dimension captures the extent to which food, water, and energy systems depend on a given mineral and the degree to which those systems would be adversely affected by a supply disruption. In other words, it reflects the scale of damage and the vulnerability exposed by a disruption in the supply of the candidate mineral. It is determined by both the functional importance of the mineral within food, water, and energy systems and the ability of those systems to adapt to or absorb supply shocks. 2. Supply Risk (UNFC-based): Leveraging UNFC, this dimension evaluates the maturity and feasibility of resource projects, economic viability, geological knowledge, and environmental and social constraints across the supply chain, from early exploration through production and recycling. The use of UNFC for the classification of mineral projects is a direct indication of potential and time-to-market. System Exposure is defined as a function of (i) Functional System Importance and (ii) System Resilience to Disruption. Functional System Importance assesses how deeply a mineral is embedded in essential infrastructure supporting food, water, and energy systems, and whether that dependence spans multiple systems. System Resilience captures the capacity of those systems to absorb or adapt to disruptions, as measured by indicators such as time to substitution, stockpile coverage, and supply adaptability (including recycling and secondary supply). Supply Risk integrates both the probability and severity of supply disruptions. The Likelihood of Supply Disruption is proxied by normalized indicators of production concentration, import dependence, and recycling rates. The Severity of Disruption reflects the duration and constraining nature of a disruption, informed by environmental, social, and governance constraints and, critically, by UNFC-based project maturity and feasibility. UNFC categories (E, F, G axes) characterize whether credible supply exists in the pipeline, the degree of uncertainty around time-to-market, and whether environmental or socio-economic constraints could delay or prevent scale-up. The structural elements forming the FWE Nexus criticality assessment, from components to the criticality score, are represented in Figure 1.
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