2539 MIND THE GAP: TRANSFORMING MINING SYSTEMS TO MEET THE CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT DECADE Doris Hiam-Galvez, Allan Moss, Nestor Deza, Peter Harvey, Roberto Valle, Nathan M. Stubina ABSTRACT The world faces a critical challenge: how to deliver the minerals society needs within the next 10 to 15 years. Current projections indicate a widening supply gap, particularly in copper, which cannot be closed solely through incremental improvements or recycling. Large projects can take decades to develop. To meet this challenge, the mining industry must undergo both technical and cultural transformations. The path forward requires a fundamental shift in mindset. We must find ways to increase metal production by more than 10%, substantially reduce mine development times, and unlock value across the entire mining system. This includes improving recovery rates, mining lower cut-off grades, and making more resources economically viable. It means advancing “mining at depth” practices that combine orebody knowledge, digital twins, and integrated operations to enable faster and more intelligent decision-making across the entire value chain. Technology and system thinking are essential enablers, connecting mine to mill, enabling more integration between mine and mill to ensure efficient processes, recycling more from tailings and waste streams, and applying integrated approaches that span geology, processing, logistics, and markets. But technology alone will not suffice. Only by combining innovation with trust, collaboration, and bold leadership can we close the gap. At the same time, we must confront industry-wide constraints: talent shortages, the inability to access or retain expertise in remote regions, and the sector’s persistent negative image among the general public. These social and cultural challenges are perhaps more critical than the technical ones, demanding new ways to build trust with communities, attract the next generation of miners and leaders, and rethink how we collaborate across government, industry, and society. There is an urgent need for governments, communities, operators, investors, end-users and innovators to step out of their comfort zones to reimagine how the industry can deliver the requisite metals safely, reliably, and responsibly to society in a timely fashion. This can only be done by addressing not just technology, but also our mindset, and culture. 1. INTRODUCTION Copper lies at the heart of the world's electrification efforts, yet the supply gap between planned production and demand could exceed 6-8 million tonnes per year by 2040 (S&P Global, 2026). Bridging this gap solely through new mines is unrealistic: each major greenfield project takes 15–20 years from discovery to production and requires, on average, capital exceeding US $5 billion. A 10% increase in production across existing global copper operations achieved through improved metallurgy, reprocessing of tailings, and lower cut-off optimisation could unlock an additional 2.5 to 3 million tonnes of copper annually, equivalent to several world-class new mines, at a fraction of the time, cost and environmental footprint. This will require substantial improvements in productivity, the creation of new sources of metals associated with existing operations, and policies to support the timely production of metals. 2. A SYSTEM UNDER STRAIN Copper demand is forecast to increase from 28 to 42 Mt per year by 2040 (S&P Global, 2026), (Figure 1). A significant gap already starts to appear by 2027. The question is whether this gap can be filled. Most of the production comes from mature, open-pit mines approaching the end of their economic lives. Several of these have transitioned to underground, adopting caving methods. Examples include Palabora, Grasberg and Chuquicamata. Further transition is expected as pits reach the economic limits of open-pit mining. The industry, however, does not have a strong track record of delivering transition projects on time and on budget. This, in part, can be attributed to the complexity and bespoke nature of underground mining compared to pit mining.
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