2541 than those in easily accessible locations (Figure 3). Such overruns necessitate higher margins to provide an adequate buffer against surprises. Figure 3 Comparison between cost overruns of remote versus easily accessible projects (Murray, 2025) During the same period, costs have risen, in part due to deeper production, while the average runof-mine copper grade has fallen. Thus, there has been a focus on larger operations to achieve the required economies of scale, resulting in a reduction in the overall number of operating mines. An outcome of this is a decrease in the resilience of the copper market, as any significant production interruption can quickly impact supply. This is illustrated by the experience in 2025, when three major underground copper producers encountered significant production delays that impacted global supply. With the transition to underground, supply resilience can be expected to decrease. Compounding the supply challenge is consolidation within the mining industry. Producers find it more cost-effective to buy long-life operating mines than to find and develop new ones. This approach, while potentially value-adding for the corporation, does not bring new production online. The above discussion illustrates the challenges the industry faces in filling the copper supply gap. Not only is higher production required, but supply must be more resilient. Mining will occur at depth in both open pits and in bulk underground operations, and the transition of open pitting to underground operations will test supply resilience. 3. THE DILEMA: MINING AT THE SPEED OF THE NEED Copper sits at the heart of electrification, yet the timelines traditionally associated with new copper supply are fundamentally misaligned with global needs. New projects can take over 25 years from discovery to production, more if it is a deep underground operation. This will result in a substantial supply gap. Realistically, additional production is required over the next 5 to 15 years. This forces a strategic pivot. While exploration must continue, the near-term solution lies in maximising value from existing and nearterm assets through system optimisation. The mining industry faces a profound dilemma: it must dramatically increase output over the next decade to support global electrification, the energy transition, and surging demand from data-intensive infrastructures such as data centres, while operating within constraints that make rapid scale-up increasingly difficult. Friedland (2026) has postulated that six new Tier 1 mines must come online every year through to 2050 to meet projected global demand. Historical evidence suggests this trajectory is highly unlikely. As illustrated in Figure 2, the rate of new Tier 1 discoveries is declining, and the time required to advance a discovery from concept to production, typically 15–20 years, creates a widening gap between demand and supply. Compounding the problem are lower grades, greater depth of production, and the loss of institutional knowledge as the most experienced professionals retire (Sandin, M. 2025). Continued exploration is essential, but exploration will not solve the near-term challenge. Even if discovery success improves, delivery timelines remain fundamentally misaligned with the speed at which the world needs metals. The question then arises: if and how can the anticipated production gap be filled?
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