460 Figure 1 – Average time for a mine to enter production, by country (Manalo, 2023, 2024, 2025). In the first study, Manalo (2023) analyzed 127 copper, gold, silver, nickel, and zinc mines that began production between 2002 and 2023 and found that the average time from discovery to production was 15.7 years, with a range of 6 to 32 years. Some differences by commodity were highlighted, with nickel showing the longest timeline (18.6 years) and gold the shortest (14.2 years), as well as variations by jurisdiction and mining type (open pit vs. underground). The update published in the following year (Manalo, 2024), with the research database expanded to 136 mines, shows that this average continues to rise, reaching 17.9 years for mines that began production between 2020 and 2023, compared with 12.7 years for operations that started approximately 15 years earlier. The 2025 study covered 194 active mines and 20 non-operating mines currently undergoing feasibility studies, for which startup dates were estimated. The results confirm and further reinforce the upward trend in development timelines: the average cycle for recently commissioned mines is already 17.8 years, while projects under development indicate potential lead times of 28 years or more. The average lead time required for a mine to enter operation has nearly tripled over the past three decades, increasing from 6.4 years in the 1990–1999 period to 10.6 years in 2005–2009, and then, following successive increases over progressively shorter intervals, reaching 17.8 years in the 2020–2024 period, as shown in Figure 2. Projections beyond 2025 indicate continued upward pressure on development timelines. Figure 2 – Evolution of the average lead time for a mine to enter production, according to Manalo (2025). One reason for more frequent delays in initiating new mines is the increasing complexity of deposits being developed (Sustainable Minerals Institute, 2022). New projects increasingly involve deeper, lowergrade orebodies in environmentally or logistically challenging regions, requiring longer and more complex technical assessments before investment readiness. Pre-construction stages have expanded, as exploration, environmental studies, permitting, community engagement, and financing demand greater integration and time. The widening gap between feasibility and construction reflects stricter licensing, increased public
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