989 HOW WILL FUTURE WATER STRESS AFFECT GLOBAL MINERAL PRODUCTION? A PROOF OF CONCEPT *M. Taki1, N. Flipo1, D. Goetz1 1Department of Geosciences, Mines Paris PSL - PSL University, France, (*Presenting author: mariam.taki@minesparis.psl.eu) ABSTRACT Water availability is a key factor influencing mineral production, as it determines the feasibility of extraction, processing, and tailings management. Projected changes in precipitation, runoff, and groundwater recharge under climate change may alter the volumes of water that can be sustainably withdrawn, creating potential constraints on future mining operations. A framework is developed combining climate-driven hydrological projections with process-based estimates of water demand for mineral production. The core of the framework is HyIR (HYdrological and Industrial Resilience), a global-scale hydrological framework that aggregates general circulation model outputs to estimate water storage and flows in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and aquifers under socioeconomic pathways scenarios. HyIR produces spatially and temporally resolved projections of extractable water under defined sustainability constraints. Water requirements for porphyry copper production are quantified based on a parametric model of production, tailings management, and evaporation losses. The resulting net water requirements per ton of copper average 260 and range from 35 to 4,000 m³, reflecting differences in ore grade, deposit size, and local climate. Water demand is aggregated to the HyIR grid and compared to extractable water to calculate a mining water stress ratio, representing the ratio of demand to available extractable water. A proof-of-concept application for South American porphyry copper shows that 25% of deposits are located in regions where mean monthly demand exceeds mean extractable water. Time-dynamic analysis under the IEA Stated Policies transition scenario STEPS indicates how the number of affected deposits and the share of production in high-stress areas evolve over the 2025– 2050 period. The highest stress occurs along the western coast of South America, particularly in northern and central Chile, where large deposits coincide with limited extractable water. The framework identifies spatial and temporal mismatches between production requirements and water availability, highlighting regions where water may become a limiting factor. Although limited to a single mineral, region, climate model, and scenario, the results demonstrate the feasibility of integrating climate hydrology with mineral production modelling, providing a scalable tool for anticipating water-related constraints and supporting riskinformed planning for minerals critical to the energy transition. KEYWORDS Water stress, climate change, copper, hydrology 1. WATER STRESS AS A CONSTRAINT ON FUTURE MINERAL PRODUCTION Water availability is a critical factor for mining operations. It is required for extraction, mineral processing, and tailing management. Many mineral-rich regions already experience water scarcity and climate change is projected to reduce renewable water availability through changes in precipitation, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge. A sixth of critical mineral mines, including porphyry copper, are located in areas of high water stress. Copper production is, however, essential for electrification and renewable energy infrastructure, making supply sensitive to water constraints. A framework is developed that links climate-driven projections of water availability with processbased estimates of mineral water demand, enabling identification of spatial and temporal locations where water could constrain production.
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