while reducing uncertainty-related “Risk.” Such a framework supports more consistent and unbiased decisions, helping teams move from intuition-driven targeting toward a more transparent and economically grounded exploration strategy. This Return–Risk concept in this research was initially developed by Sadeghi and Cohen (2023), which was successfully applied to the till samples in entire Sweden, and soil samples in Cyprus for VMS Cu exploration. Here, this method was applied to critical minerals/battery group (Li, Ni, Co, Ta, V, MnO, MgO, and Al2O3) in a case study in Jebal Ibrahim, Saudi Arabia, using 666 stream sediment samples focusing on Li exploration (Figure 1). Figure 1 – The study area and sample locations 2. DATA ANALYSIS AND GEOLOGICAL INTERPRETATIONS In this study, the initial focus was on lithium exploration within the broader battery-element suite (Li, Ni, Co, Ta, V, MnO, MgO, and Al₂O₃). To stabilize the compositional structure of the geochemical dataset and reduce the influence of closure effects, the centered logratio (CLR) transformation was applied to the Li values (Figure 2A). Subsequently, a PCA biplot combined with K-Means clustering was used to evaluate the multi-element relationships and to extract the first-pass geological interpretation of the dataset (Figures 2B and 2C). The clustering results provided a clear geochemical and geological separation of the area. Cluster 0 (red), which contains the highest lithium concentrations with an average of 14.3 ppm, stands out as the most prospective zone. This cluster not only hosts the strongest Li enrichment but also tends to show elevated Ta, Al₂O₃, and MnO. The geochemical behavior of this group is consistent with signatures expected from fertile LCT pegmatite systems, where high Li–Ta–Al assemblages typically indicate evolved, fractionated granitic melts. The presence of elevated Mn further supports late-magmatic or hydrothermal modification. From an exploration perspective, Cluster 0 represents the top-priority domain, and the areas falling into this category are strong candidates for Li-bearing pegmatites such as spodumene, lepidolite, or petalite. Cluster 2 (green) displays moderately high Li values, averaging around 11.5 ppm—lower than Cluster 0 but still enriched relative to background. This cluster often exhibits moderate
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