UNLOCKING CAPITAL EFFICIENCY THROUGH SYSTEMS THINKING, DIGITAL TWINS AND AI *J. Ricce1, I. López1 1BHP, Australia, (*Presenting author: jose.ricce@bhp.com) ABSTRACT Meeting the world’s growing demand for minerals requires the industry to bring new supply online faster and with greater capital discipline. Yet large mining projects routinely experience cost escalation during definition, often because uncertainty is resolved by adding scope rather than by testing whether that scope is genuinely required. This paper presents an integrated framework that combines systems thinking, mining value chain digital twins and artificial intelligence (AI) to improve capital efficiency in complex resource projects. Systems thinking identifies the reinforcing feedback loops through which uncertainty is converted into scope. Digital twins provide a controlled environment to test alternative design options under realistic operating variability before capital is committed. An AI layer, incorporating reinforcement learning, accelerates scenario discovery and translates simulation outputs into decision-ready insights. Together, these capabilities support a data-driven Minimum Viable Solution (MVS) approach that determines what scope to keep, resize, defer or remove based on system-level evidence. A case study from a maintenance facility project demonstrates the practical application, where equivalent system performance was achieved with materially lower capital. Capital freed from over-scoped projects can be redirected to accelerate new supply, a direct contribution to the industry’s ability to deliver minerals faster, smarter and more responsibly. KEYWORDS Capital efficiency, systems thinking, digital twins, artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, minimum viable solution, mining value chain, scenario discovery 1. CONTEXT AND PROBLEM STATEMENT The global energy transition and population growth are accelerating demand for minerals. Delivering the required supply depends not only on discovering and developing new deposits but on allocating capital efficiently across project portfolios. When capital is consumed by over-scoped projects, fewer resources remain to bring the next project forward. Capital efficiency is therefore not just a project-level concern, it is a constraint on the pace at which the industry can respond to global demand. Large capital projects in mining routinely experience cost escalation during definition.
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