Figure 4 – Ore-type sequence during the 3-hour excerpt used for qualitative forecast visualization (31/01/2026, ≈20:10–23:10). 5-minute horizon. Figure 5 shows 5-minute-ahead predictions with uncertainty quantified by P10–P90 bands obtained from 200 samples drawn from the predicted mixture distribution. Each orange point represents a forecast issued 5 minutes earlier, so the blue trajectory (measured value) should follow the orange trajectory if the model anticipates short-term evolution correctly. In this horizon, the measured values remain largely within the uncertainty band, indicating both accurate point forecasts (mixture expectation) and well-aligned uncertainty estimates for throughput and discharge pressure. Figure 5 – 5-minute-ahead probabilistic forecasts for SAG throughput (TPH) and discharge pressure with P10–P90 uncertainty bands (200 mixture samples). 15-minute horizon. Figure 6 reports the same excerpt for a 15-minute horizon, using 400 samples to estimate P10–P90 due to increased forecast uncertainty. The uncertainty band becomes wider and, in this case, may appear asymmetric (e.g., P10 farther from the mean than P90), consistent with non-Gaussian and potentially skewed predictive distributions produced by the MDN. Overall, the model still captures relevant throughput evolution, while pressure becomes less precise, reflecting the expected degradation with horizon.
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