46 fracture–matrix flow models are required. By focusing hydrogeologic characterization on the parameters that most strongly influence pressure response, this framework supports faster, smarter, and more responsible mine development through more efficient data acquisition, improved dewatering design, and reduced groundwater management risk. KEYWORDS Uncertainty quantification, dewatering, underground mine planning, water pressure, decisionmaking under uncertainty, copper, fractured rock hydrogeology, energy transition, Zambian Copperbelt, sensitivity analysis 1. BACKGROUND Copper is a critical mineral for the global energy transition, supporting electrification, renewable generation, and grid infrastructure. Meeting projected demand requires unlocking deposits that are deeper, wetter, and structurally more complex than those previously developed. The Mingomba copper deposit in northern Zambia, located within the Copperbelt just south of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) border, is one such deposit. Mingomba lies between two active mining sites, the Lubambe Mine to the northwest and the Konkola Mine to the southeast, and one historical site, the Musoshi Mine in the DRC. Historical dewatering rates at the Lubambe Mine have ranged from 50,000 to 125,000 m³/day. Konkola is one of the wettest mines in the world, with current inflow rates between 300,000 and 350,000 m³/day and reported dewatering costs of approximately US$5 million per month. A hydraulic connection between the mines has been documented; historically, dewatering at Konkola resulted in dewatering of Lubambe Shaft 2 due to subsurface communication. Anecdotal evidence indicates that during operations in the 1990s, the dewatering of Lubambe and Musoshi also influenced one another. The proposed Mingomba workings are deeper than both Lubambe and Konkola. They will pass through the entire geological sequence to the deepest part of the stratigraphic basin, making the site a potential hydraulic sink and increasing the importance of regional groundwater interactions in dewatering design. The Mingomba site lies within the Kafue River catchment. The hydrogeology comprises an upper weathered profile of residual soils and saprolite underlain by unweathered fractured bedrock, and includes the Lower and Upper Roan Groups, shales, and basement rock. Mean annual precipitation at the nearby KCM weather station (1954 to 2016 record) is 1,279 mm/year, with rainfall concentrated between December and March. Recharge has been estimated at approximately 10 to 20 percent of rainfall, depending on soil conditions. Regional-scale faults
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM0Mzk2