11 4 resilience, shared prosperity, and competitive advantage under increasing hydroclimatic uncertainty. KEYWORDS Adaptive basin management; Mining water sustainability; Climate risk; Water governance; Water-use efficiency; Wastewater reuse; Nature-based solutions; Operational risk; Financial viability. 1. CONTEXT AND PROBLEM STATEMENT Water is the natural resource under the greatest stress. Population growth, pollution, and climate change are tightening constraints on both the quantity and quality of available water. Urban growth, farming expansion, and water-heavy industries are boosting demand as supply drops due to shifting hydrology, groundwater overuse, and ecosystem decline. Recent climate variability has been marked by an accelerated emergence of extreme events linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly the increasing persistence of multiyear La Niña episodes since the late twentieth century (see Fig. 1). This shift is associated with changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific -notably the relative warming of the western Pacific compared to the central Pacific- which modifies key ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and favors prolonged La Niña conditions with heightened socioeconomic impacts (Wang et al., 2023). As a result, ENSO increasingly amplifies the occurrence and intensity of extreme hydrological events, exacerbating floods and droughts across regions (Islam, 2025). Figure 1. Sea surface temperature anomalies showing El Niño and single-year and multiyear La Niña occurrences Source: Wang et al., 2023. These impacts now unfold on a warmer background climate, as 2023–2025 were the three warmest years on record (see Fig. 2), further intensifying the severity of ENSO-related extremes (World Meteorological Organization [WMO], 2026; Copernicus Climate Change Service [C3S], 2026).
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