63 Water-constrained production patterns indicate where management strategies such as water recycling, alternative sourcing, or changes in processing configuration may be most critical. Integrating water availability into operational and investment decisions allows producers to anticipate bottlenecks and optimize resource allocation across the mining portfolio. This proof-of-concept assessment is limited to a single mineral, continent, climate model, and scenario. Grid-level indicators do not capture site-specific hydrological infrastructure, operational flexibility, or supplemental water sourcing (e.g., desalination or longdistance transfers). Results should therefore be interpreted as illustrative rather than predictive. This assessment does not account for country-specific regulatory frameworks governing water allocation to mining, notably restrictions on freshwater use and high recycling practices in major producing regions such as Chile and Peru, which may substantially modify local water– production relationships, but remain outside the scope of this analysis. 5. SCALING THE APPROACH FOR GLOBAL MINING TRANSFORMATION The proof-of-concept demonstrates that combining climate-informed water availability with deposit-level production enables identification of potential constraints on future mining. Extending the framework to all global porphyry copper deposits would allow systematic comparisons across regions, highlighting areas most exposed to water stress and those likely to remain resilient. Future analyses should incorporate multiple climate models and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as well as alternative copper demand scenarios, to produce probabilistic projections validated against historical patterns. Full water demand assessments will also require accounting for competing uses beyond mining and for water sourcing constraints, including transport distance and elevation differences. The framework can be further adapted to explore alternative production flowsheets, varying recycling efficiencies, and scheduling strategies that consider both ore grade and water sourcing costs rather than grade alone. Coupling these considerations with process-based water demand models allows evaluation of how production scheduling, deposit selection, and operational choices interact with spatially and temporally dynamic water availability. Water stress additionally influences production costs, investment risk, and infrastructure planning. Explicitly integrating these economic and financial dimensions into the framework enables assessment of trade-offs between production strategies and water sourcing under scarcity. By embedding water availability into forward-looking supply assessments, this approach provides a scalable tool for industry, investors, and policymakers to support more resilient pathways for delivering minerals critical to the energy transition. REFERENCES Magnin, B. P., Graham, G. E., Huston, D. L., & Eglington, B. M. (2025). A global database of porphyry copper deposits and prospects, U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.5066/P14CCESQ
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