114 warming of the Indian Ocean, leading to longer, wider, and more moisture-laden atmospheric rivers. As a result, monsoon rainfall is increasingly characterized by short-duration, high-intensity precipitation events. Further highlighting this concern, Koll (2023) emphasized that increasing variability in atmospheric moisture transport during the monsoon season has significantly elevated the risks of flash floods and landslides. The abrupt release of moisture accumulated over warming oceanic regions often produces intense rainfall over short temporal scales, thereby overwhelming both natural and engineered drainage systems. Concurrently, long-term observations conducted across central India reveal a paradoxical climatic trend: while average monsoon rainfall has declined by nearly 10–20% since the 1950s, the frequency of extreme rainfall events (≥150 mm/day) has increased by approximately 75%, with nearly 13 additional extreme events occurring per decade (Roxy et al., 2017). This shift implies prolonged dry spells interrupted by highly intense wet periods, creating substantial challenges for mine infrastructure and operational planning. Opencast coal mining accounts for nearly 92% of India’s total coal production (Ministry of Coal, 2025), making surface mining operations critical to national energy security. However, opencast mines are inherently exposed to environmental and climatic variability, with mining activities being influenced by all three major seasons- summer, winter, and the monsoon. During summer, elevated temperatures increase spontaneous heating incidents, dust generation, and worker fatigue. Winter conditions adversely affect visibility and equipment efficiency. Among these seasonal challenges, the monsoon season remains the most complex operational period due to risks associated with flooding, slope instability, dump erosion, and failure of drainage and dewatering systems. In contrast, maintaining production continuity and ensuring safety during the monsoon season, spanning approximately four months from June to September, remains the most complex operational challenge for opencast mines. Intense and erratic rainfall directly affects pit stability, dump integrity, mine drainage efficiency, and the reliability of haulage and dewatering systems. Based on long-standing operational experience, Northern Coalfields Limited (NCL) has developed a structured monsoon management framework aimed at sustaining uninterrupted coal production and dispatch to thermal power stations, thereby supporting continuous electricity generation. However, recent climate-induced shifts in monsoon behaviour have increasingly tested the effectiveness of these conventional preparedness measures, necessitating a reassessment of existing safety and planning methodologies.
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