79 Table 12 – Estimation of supply risks considering all deposits (prod., expl. proj., unknown stat.) Scenarios tonnage / countries / deposits Total resources (all deposits/occurrences) 1 758.0 Mio t (45 countries, 217 deposits) Scenario 1 (pol. stable countries only) 220.4 Mio t (20 countries, 217 deposits) Scenario 2a (intact democracy) 216.1 Mio t (18 countries, 207 deposits) Scenario 2b (sufficient environm. performance) 133.2 Mio t (11 countries*, 122 deposits) *Australia, Austria, Czech, Rep., Finland, Germany, Greenland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, UK Can exploration projects actually contribute to security of supply? The likelihood that all exploration projects can be converted into producing mines is low. For some projects, despite sufficient resources, the lack of infrastructure can be a decisive factor preventing them from becoming a producing mine. Table 13 – Estimation of supply risks considering advanced exploration projects only Scenarios tonnage / countries / deposits Total resources (projects) 679.0 Mio t (34 countries, 204 deposits) Scenario 1 (pol. stable countries only) 171.7 Mio t (13 countries, 118 deposits) Scenario 2a (intact democracy) 167.7 Mio t (12 countries, 113 deposits) Scenario 2b (sufficient environm. performance) 118.9 Mio t (7 countries*, 66 deposits) *Australia, Czech Rep., Finland, Greenland, Norway, Spain, Sweden Companies already mining graphite are interested in marketing their products. However, overruling political decisions, such as export bans (e.g. China’s Rare Earth restrictions!), can significantly impact global supply (external risks). Self-imposed import bans (e.g., oil and gas by the European Commission) can lead to further reductions (internal risks). These aspects result in the following limitations: Table 14 - Estimation of supply risks considering active operations only Scenarios tonnage / countries / deposits Total resources 332.8 Mio t (19 countries, 95 deposits) Scenario 1 (pol. Stable countries only) 20.2 Mio t (8 countries, 13 deposits) Scenario 2a (intact democracy) 19.9 Mio t (7 countries, 10 deposits) Scenario 2b (sufficient environm. performance) 8.8 Mio t (4 countries*, 4 deposits) *Austria, Germany, Norway, Sweden 7. CONCLUSION The complex situation suggests that despite seemingly sufficient resources for centuries, the rapidly increasing demand for high-quality graphite, particularly for EV, must be assessed
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