scale energy storage, renewable power systems, charging and transmission networks, data centers, and modern electronics. The International Energy Agency notes that the expansion of electrification and low-carbon energy systems will drive strong growth in demand for these metals over the coming decades. At the same time, the current mineral supply system faces growing structural constraints. Declining terrestrial ore grades require mining and processing more raw materials to produce the same amount of metal, increasing both energy use and environmental impact. New mining projects also face long development timelines—often exceeding a decade— driven by permitting requirements, community concerns, land access, and water availability. As a result, even where mineral resources are well understood, bringing new supplies into operation has become slower and more difficult. Together, these trends reveal a widening gap between rising demand and the speed at which current approaches can deliver new supply. Incremental improvements to conventional mining alone are unlikely to close this gap. Meeting future critical metal needs will require complementary approaches that deliver materials more efficiently with shorter development timelines, and reduced environmental and social impacts, while operating within robust governance frameworks. 2. PROBLEM DEFINITION: LIMITATIONS OF CURRENT APPROACHES 2.1 Terrestrial Mining Constraints Traditional land-based mining faces three converging challenges that limit the rate at which new supply can be developed and the scale of associated impacts. 2.1.1 Ore Grade Decline In many mature mining regions, ore grades are falling. To produce the same amount of metal, operators must mine, move, and process significantly more rock than in the past; this increases energy use, waste generation, and environmental impact per unit of metal produced. 2.1.2 Environmental Footprint Large open pits, tailings facilities, water use, and land disturbance are central features of most terrestrial mining operations. These impacts are increasingly scrutinized by regulators, communities, and investors, raising development costs, extending approval processes, and increasing project risk. 2.1.3 Project Timelines Developing a new terrestrial mine is a long process. Projects take an average of 15.7 years to reach production2, impacting land-based mining's ability to respond quickly to near-term changes in demand. Automation, electrification, and processing improvements can increase the efficiency of individual mines, but these changes don’t really shrink their size, footprint, or long development timelines.
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