RESULTS The NPV result, considering the uncertainty variables, has allowed us to create a probabilistic, rather than deterministic, cash flow projection. Using simulation tool 5.0 and the probability distributions for each uncertainty variable (gold and silver prices, metallurgical recovery, ore production, waste rock removal, and costs), we were able to determine the investment risk of this project through Monte Carlo simulation and recommend its feasibility to the board of directors. To obtain an accurate result, 10,000 iterations were performed, from which the following results were obtained: Table 11 – Simulation Statistics Iteration TOT NPV Ag_simul Au_simul Count 10000 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 Errors 0 0 0.00 0.00 Mínimum 1851.30678 -S/ 270,411,037 8.95 1,840.06 Máximum 6018.04803 S/ 638,846,769 126.22 5,908.93 Range 4166.74125 S/ 909,257,806 117.27 4,068.87 Mean 3384.57464 -S/ 20,739,335 37.01 3,346.66 Expected Value 3384.59469 -S/ 20,375,563 37.03 3,346.66 Median 3346.53074 -S/ 32,903,486 34.82 3,310.38
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