OFFICIAL 3.1 Modelling Component The modelling component provides a quantitative risk assessment of potential flyrock before a blast is fired. It predicts the maximum throw distances by simulating rock fragment trajectories using input parameters reflective of local conditions. Based on the factors and mechanisms that cause flyrock, various techniques have been developed to predict flyrock occurrences (Raina, 2023). Some of the techniques are rock engineering related, empirical, ballistic, statistical (Van Der Walt & Spiteri, 2023). The ballistic method applies the principles of projectile motion to predict the trajectory and distance of flyrock (Stojadinović, et al., 2011). It considers factors such as initial velocity, angle of projection, gravity and air resistance as indicated in Figure 2. This method provides a clear physical and mathematical basis for predictions and can be used to simulate different blasting scenarios. This method was adapted for the modelling component of the framework. Figure 2 - Flyrock trajectory modelling components Traditional ballistic methods assume generic input parameters (such as fragment size or shape) in trajectory calculations, which may not reflect local geology or blast practices, leading to inaccurate exclusion zone estimates. To address this, as part of the framework, the modelling approach was amended to use site-specific and domain-specific inputs, which was derived by re-evaluating the parameters of the flyrock model as depicted in Figure 3.
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