Mcnulty Curves – New Perspectives To Enable Trust, Transformation, And Technology B. E. MacKinnon1*, P. J. Mackey2, and T. P. McNulty3 1Hatch, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada (*Presenting author: britt.mackinnon@hatch.com) 2P. J. Mackey Technology, Inc., Kirkland, Québec, Canada 3T. P. McNulty and Associates, Inc., Tucson, Arizona, USA Abstract In 1998, Terry McNulty presented a seminal paper surveying 41 metallurgical and chemical processing plant case histories, identifying dominant causes of success and failure [1, 2]. Available data yielded four curves portraying achievement rates of design capacity for projects, from successful to unsuccessful. Identifiable characteristics were tabulated, establishing guidelines for project planning or prioritization of projects competing for capital. Updates were presented in 2004, 2014, 2024, and 2025. The interpretations of success and failure have remained unchanged, i.e., quality of underlying information, development of process design criteria, experience and commitment of the project owner, and avoidance of fast-track schedules that could suppress careful decision making. Today’s project owners face a critical challenge: how to deliver the minerals the world urgently needs, faster, smarter, and more responsibly. To overcome this challenge, we need trust, transformation, and technology. The McNulty curves serve as a valuable tool to help project owners with building trust, supporting transformation and de-risking technology and plant design features. Project owners asking the question “how much can we shorten project timelines without cutting corners?” can draw important lessons from past project case histories and proven strategies to safely accelerate ramp-ups. This paper explores how to apply the McNulty curves to enable trust, transformation, and technology in new projects. Keywords Ramp-ups, Start-ups, McNulty Curves, Risk Reduction, Accelerated Ramp-ups; De-risking Ramp-ups 195
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