program serves as the foundation for a project that is competently carried out in all other respects, there is the opportunity that the ramp-up curve will be even better than Series 1. In 2014, McNulty presented a modified “Accelerated Series 1 Curve” or “Series 1A Curve” that includes the best 23 case histories, out of a total of 81 examined [6]. The data revealed that carefully developed and executed projects can ramp-up quickly and that owners of new projects should avoid being too pessimistic in projecting early cash flow if they are certain that they have done their homework. Reviewing the case histories presented by Dynatec, Freeport, and Hatch [6], and revisiting the 41 case histories that were analyzed in the earlier 1998 paper [1, 2] have made it clear that there is a risk in not recognizing the possibility of having a ramp-up that is better than Series 1. This is especially true if several projects are competing for financing, either internal or with public equity. If a project owner and team have delivered well across all stages (e.g., proper resource definition, selection of the right execution model and appropriate partner to execute, operational readiness planning, and provision of sufficient capital and a unified, diversely skilled team to rapidly design and implement post-startup “fixes”), then ramp-up excellence can be achieved. [7] 3. METHODOLOGY Success depends on having the right people, right mindset, and the right approach to de-risking technology. McNulty has repeatedly emphasized the importance of having the right people with common sense and practical wisdom, “Regardless of the extent to which it depends on innovative technology, a successful project requires sensible corporate management, experienced project management and adequate support from specialized professionals in process development, equipment design and engineering. There is nothing new in these conclusions. Most readers, though, will remember a failure that could have been prevented if someone had convinced senior management that the project was straying from a course dictated by good judgment and common sense.” [1, 2]. This outlook is reinforced by Bent Flyvbjerg, a plenary speaker at WMC 2026, regarded as the world’s foremost scientific authority in megaproject management and author of “How Big Things Get Done” (2023). This book delves into why some major projects achieve extraordinary results while others fail spectacularly. Flyvbjerg notes that with so many resources committed to large-scale projects, the responsibility to plan them properly has never been greater. “The potential benefits of building the right projects the right way are enormous—and matched only by the vast waste involved in taking on the wrong projects or executing them poorly,” he emphasizes. [8] 198
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