financial: the capacity to generate surpluses determines whether a cluster can sustain the CDA dimensions—particularly infrastructure improvement and equity participation—that the McDonald & Rivera-Camino framework identifies as the pathway to legitimacy. Stagnation, therefore, is not just an economic cost; it is the elimination of the conditions under which legitimacy can be built. 6.1. The Dynamics of the Multiplier Effect (6.25) The execution of the Northern Cluster’s project portfolio would trigger a powerful multiplier effect within the national economy. ● The 6.25 Factor: Studies by the IPE indicate that mining investment has a multiplier effect of 6.25. This means that for every dollar invested in the cluster, more than six dollars are generated across the expanded value chain (suppliers, construction, services, and consumption). ● Impact on GDP: The materialization of this cluster (with an investment of US$ 19 billion) has the potential to accelerate national GDP growth by 3.90 percentage points per year during the execution phase. ● Fiscal Revenue (Canon): In terms of public sustainability, the efficient production of the cluster would generate an estimated mining canon (tax redistribution) of US$ 884 million annually. These resources are vital for financing the construction and operation of hospitals and schools in the regions, closing the circle of social legitimacy. 6.2. The Stasis of Failure: Stalled Projects In contrast, the portfolio of stalled projects represents an incalculable opportunity cost. ● Dead Capital: Keeping projects such as Conga or Tía María halted implies forgoing an 18% expansion of the country’s copper production frontier. ● Social Deterioration: While projects wait an average of 62 years to come to fruition, the regions where they are located suffer the consequences. Cajamarca, despite its geological wealth, has become the poorest region in Peru. This stagnation perpetuates such conditions by denying access to shared infrastructure and the fiscal resources that the mine would activate. 6.3. Multiplier Quality: Disaggregation by Metal Type While the Peruvian Institute of Economics (IPE) estimates an average multiplier effect of 6.25 indirect jobs for every direct job in the metallic mining sector, it is essential to disaggregate this indicator according to the operational nature of the deposit. Not all metals generate the same type of productive linkage. 6.3.1. The Copper Multiplier (Infrastructure Linkage) Because large-scale copper mining is a massive earthmoving industry (open pit), its real multiplier is estimated to be in the upper range of the average (> 7.5). This is because it activates 'heavy' value chains: ● Civil Construction: Creation and maintenance of high-tonnage access roads. ● Energy and Metalworking: Massive demand for transmission lines and maintenance of heavy fleets. This type of linkage leaves behind a 'physical asset' in the territory (roads, electrical grids) that benefits other industries. 21
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