For the mining sector, recognising this implementation gap is foundational to moving from offsets to outcomes. NbS that fall short in centring people within their ToC risk undermining both conservation effectiveness and investment value. This points to the need for a more systematic approach to identifying, questioning, and testing social assumptions – one that includes robust governance and capacity considerations from the outset. This is a precondition for delivering inclusive and durable outcomes for both people and nature. 2. STEPS FORWARD: PRACTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR TESTING SOCIAL ASSUMPTIONS IN NBS PROJECT DESIGN Building on this diagnosis, a more systematic and critical approach is recommended to identify, question, and test the key assumptions that underpin NbS project design. This means embedding social analysis and local knowledge at the earliest stages of project development and ensuring that monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) systems are equipped to track whether these assumptions hold true in practice. The recommendations below aim to provide a practical roadmap for project developers and investors to operationalise this approach, drawing on interdisciplinary evidence and best practice. 2.1. Guiding Principles The principles below provide a foundation for integrating social dimensions into NbS design and implementation. Together, they support an adaptative learning approach in which assumptions are treated as testable propositions rather than fixed design inputs, ultimately helping projects reduce risk while improving social and environmental performance. Question assumptions early and often: This entails systematically identifying and interrogating social, cultural, and governance assumptions embedded in the project ToC, early in project design, and treating these assumptions as dynamic and context-dependent rather than fixed or self-evident. Particular attention should be given to assessing critical enabling conditions, including political, social, cultural and economic factors, that underpin the success of project interventions. Where gaps exist, integrating measures into project design to help create a supportive environment should be considered. Local ownership as a prerequisite, not an add-on: Local ownership should always be a foundational element of project design rather than a secondary consideration. This implies co-defining objectives, governance structures, and benefit-sharing mechanisms with local stakeholders and communities before technical decisions are made. Embedding local ownership from the start not only strengthens legitimacy and social viability, but also creates the conditions for continuously testing, challenging, and refining the social assumptions underpinning the project’s theory of change – since those closest to the intervention are best positioned to identify hidden logic gaps, contextual uncertainties, and shifts in social dynamics. 76
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