project takes 15–20 years from discovery to production and requires, on average, capital exceeding US $5 billion. A 10% increase in production across existing global copper operations achieved through improved metallurgy, reprocessing of tailings, and lower cut-off optimisation could unlock an additional 2.5 to 3 million tonnes of copper annually, equivalent to several world-class new mines, at a fraction of the time, cost and environmental footprint. This will require substantial improvements in productivity, the creation of new sources of metals associated with existing operations, and policies to support the timely production of metals. 2. A SYSTEM UNDER STRAIN Copper demand is forecast to increase from 28 to 42 Mt per year by 2040 (S&P Global, 2026), (Figure 1). A significant gap already starts to appear by 2027. The question is whether this gap can be filled. Most of the production comes from mature, open-pit mines approaching the end of their economic lives. Several of these have transitioned to underground, adopting caving methods. Examples include Palabora, Grasberg and Chuquicamata. Further transition is expected as pits reach the economic limits of open-pit mining. The industry, however, does not have a strong track record of delivering transition projects on time and on budget. This, in part, can be attributed to the complexity and bespoke nature of underground mining compared to pit mining. Figure 1 Plot of copper demand and production versus time (S&P Global, 2026) The gap is unlikely to be filled by new projects, given the paucity of recent discoveries (Figure 2) and the time required for discoveries to reach production (15 to 25 years). By 2035, the mining industry must undergo a major transformation to meet the rapidly growing demand for metals driven by global electrification and the expansion of energy-intensive sectors such as data centres. This will require mines operate as fully integrated, intelligent systems in which 87
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM0Mzk2