Figure 4 Distribution of brownfield sites across global, environmental and regulatory indicators, Kemp et al 2025 (Bars show the share of sites falling into quartiles for each indicator. Colour represents quartiles from most adverse (quartile 4, dark red) to least adverse (quartile 1, dark blue). The red dot marks the designated high-risk threshold for each indicator). Many of the world’s largest copper mines are mature assets, adding pressure since remaining lives are measured in one or two decades. Extending mine life, improving recovery, and increasing throughput without proportionally increasing environmental impact will determine whether supply can keep pace with demand. This also requires a clearer, more realistic view of global supply. The copper challenge makes the conclusion unavoidable: the future of mining will be determined less by individual projects and more by how well we design, operate, and govern mining systems, integrating technology, talent, trust, and time-aware decision-making across the entire value chain. 4.2. Integration and Systems Approach Across the industry, tailings and waste streams still contain significant quantities of unrecovered metal. Even modest improvements in recovery can be transformative. A 10% improvement in metal recovery across existing operations is equivalent to bringing a major new mine into production without new pits, permits, or decades of delay. As mining moves deeper, operational risk increases. Greater depth brings higher geotechnical uncertainty, increased energy intensity, and a higher likelihood of unplanned production 93
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