1140 greater dependence on imported liquid fuels — particularly diesel — for logistics, backup generation, and thermal processes. This would increase exposure to international oil price volatility, raise operating costs, and introduce supply-chain risks that domestic gas currently mitigates. Camisea creates advantage across three dimensions: cost competitiveness and predictability (due to promotional price regulations that rule electrical generation), through reduced reliance on imported fuels and improved margin stability; reliability and operational continuity, through gas-backed dispatchable generation that reduces supply disruption risk; and a practical decarbonization route, by displacing more carbonintensive fuels in segments where electrification remains constrained, while providing the flexibility required to integrate non-conventional renewables. This advantage is conditional. It depends on ensuring that natural gas remains available, affordable, and — critically — deliverable. Without sufficient investment in infrastructure and system coordination, the benefits of domestic gas can be eroded by bottlenecks, constraints, and supply disruptions. Peru has already experienced this dynamic. One structural unknown that this paper flags explicitly: Camisea’s reserve life and upstream investment trajectory. The strategic advantage argument assumes domestic production remains robust through 2040. If production peaks materially before then — due to under-investment, geological constraints, or regulatory uncertainty — the entire hybrid architecture requires revision, and the transition timeline must accelerate. Monitoring reserve profiles and upstream investment conditions is therefore a policy priority. 4.3 Three-Scenario Comparison: 2030 Energy Mix for Mining The following table presents indicative projections for three energy mix scenarios for Peru’s mining sector in 2030. These scenarios are constructed from publicly available system modeling and benchmarked cost data. They are intended to illustrate structural relationships and directional trade-offs, not to serve as precise forecasts. The Balanced Hybrid scenario is the reference pathway. Table 23 – Indicative 2030 Energy Mix Scenarios for Peru´s Mining Sector Indicator High Gas (2030) Balanced Hybrid (2030) ★ Accelerated Renewable (2030) Gas share of generation 35–40% 25–30% 20–25% Renewable share (wind + solar) 20–25% 25–35% 35–40% Hydro share 35–40% 35–40% 28–35% System cost index (relative to Hybrid) 0.85 1.00 1.30–1.45 Indicative avg. electricity price (USD/MWh) 40–45 45–50 55–60 Reliability risk without additional storage Low Low–Medium Medium - High Scope 2 reduction vs. 2024 baseline ~2% ~40% ~60% Required storage investment None Minimummoderate High
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