2494 (B) Human Road Disruption Records (SUTRAN, 2022–2025) National transport authority records on road interruptions. Only events classified under human causes were incorporated. This dataset proxies: • blockade capacity • protest logistics • territorial coercive leverage • mobility disruption potential (C) Illicit Financial Flow Proxies Regional estimates linked to suspicious transactions and money laundering associated with illegal economies. Used to capture: • financial scale • liquidity networks • capacity to sustain illegal operations (D) State Capacity and Territorial Development Two structural indicators were integrated: • Human Development Index (HDI) • State Density Indicator (IDE) These variables approximate state reach, institutional capability, and territorial service presence. (E) Formal Gold Production Units (2025) Official mining units currently in production, emphasizing operations linked to gold (AU). This identifies territories where illegal mining competes directly with formal extractive activity. 5.3 Indicator Construction The TLRI is composed of five standardized dimensions. (1) Territorial Informality Pressure (TIP) Measures the territorial footprint of informal mining through REINFO concentration. Registrations were weighted by status: • Active = 1.0 • Suspended = 0.7 • Revoked = 0.4 This recognizes that revoked registrations may still reflect territorial embeddedness or residual influence. High TIP scores indicate regions where informal mining has scale and continuity. (2) State Fragility (SF) Constructed from inverse combinations of: • HDI • IDE Higher scores indicate lower territorial capacity to regulate, coordinate, or provide governance certainty. (3) Illicit Financial Capacity (IFC) Based on normalized regional financial-risk proxies. Higher values suggest stronger illegal liquidity networks capable of financing operations, patronage, or territorial expansion. (4) Human Disruption Capacity (HDC) Built from SUTRAN human-cause road interruption records (2022–2025), considering: • frequency
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