2495 • persistence across years • territorial spread • interruption severity This component reflects the ability to impose territorial pressure through collective disruption. (5) Gold Formal Exposure (GFE) Measures presence of formal gold-producing operations using: • number of producing units • territorial spread • concentration of gold activity High GFE values indicate regions where illegal mining may generate stronger reputational, logistical, or coexistence risks for formal operators. 5.4 Composite Risk Logic All indicators were standardized to a 0–100 scale and combined through weighted aggregation: TLRI = (0.30 TIP) + (0.20 SF) + (0.20 IFC) + (0.15 HDC) + (0.15 GFE) Weighting Logic The model prioritizes: • territorial informal presence as the core structural variable • state fragility and financial capacity as enabling conditions • disruption capacity and formal gold overlap as escalation multipliers The TLRI therefore does not measure crime directly. It identifies thresholds where informal mining can evolve from peripheral activity into a territorial governance competitor. 5.5 Pilot Territorial Findings The pilot application reveals strong territorial concentration rather than homogeneous national distribution. Highest TLRI Scores • Puno • Arequipa • Apurímac • Cusco • Madre de Dios • La Libertad These regions combine different mixes of: • informal mining density • illicit finance • state vulnerability • territorial disruption • formal gold coexistence Interpretation For example: • Puno scores highest due to simultaneous territorial concentration, financial pressure, and high vulnerability. • Arequipa combines strong informal pressure with significant formal gold exposure. • Madre de Dios reflects entrenched extractive illegality and historical territorial embeddedness.
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