2619 6. RISK EVALUATION Risk is the product of probability of occurrence and severity of damage. Countries without their own graphite deposits rely on raw material imports. However, if the supply chain is disrupted, this can have negative impacts on the economy. This simple consideration also implies that zero risk is impossible. With approximately 1,758 Mio t (C-content) and an average annual production of approximately 1.65 Mio t C-content (WMD 2025), potential graphite resources appear sufficient for the next few decades. However, 87% of the resources are located in countries where the political situation (external risks) does not guarantee secure and uninterrupted production and thus supply to consumers (Scenario 1). Some countries have import bans for raw materials from countries with insufficient democratic principles, inadequate environmental protection, or armed conflicts. For example, the European Union has decided to ban oil and gas imports from Russia. Such (self-imposed) supply constraints are referred to as “internal risks” (Scenarios 2a, 2b). Under these premises, resources from producing deposits and exploration projects can be reduced as follows: Table 12 – Estimation of supply risks considering all deposits (prod., expl. proj., unknown stat.) Scenarios tonnage / countries / deposits Total resources (all deposits/occurrences) 1 758.0 Mio t (45 countries, 217 deposits) Scenario 1 (pol. stable countries only) 220.4 Mio t (20 countries, 217 deposits) Scenario 2a (intact democracy) 216.1 Mio t (18 countries, 207 deposits) Scenario 2b (sufficient environm. performance) 133.2 Mio t (11 countries*, 122 deposits) *Australia, Austria, Czech, Rep., Finland, Germany, Greenland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, UK Can exploration projects actually contribute to security of supply? The likelihood that all exploration projects can be converted into producing mines is low. For some projects, despite sufficient resources, the lack of infrastructure can be a decisive factor preventing them from becoming a producing mine.
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