2620 Table 13 – Estimation of supply risks considering advanced exploration projects only Scenarios tonnage / countries / deposits Total resources (projects) 679.0 Mio t (34 countries, 204 deposits) Scenario 1 (pol. stable countries only) 171.7 Mio t (13 countries, 118 deposits) Scenario 2a (intact democracy) 167.7 Mio t (12 countries, 113 deposits) Scenario 2b (sufficient environm. performance) 118.9 Mio t (7 countries*, 66 deposits) *Australia, Czech Rep., Finland, Greenland, Norway, Spain, Sweden Companies already mining graphite are interested in marketing their products. However, overruling political decisions, such as export bans (e.g. China’s Rare Earth restrictions!), can significantly impact global supply (external risks). Self-imposed import bans (e.g., oil and gas by the European Commission) can lead to further reductions (internal risks). These aspects result in the following limitations: Table 14 - Estimation of supply risks considering active operations only Scenarios tonnage / countries / deposits Total resources 332.8 Mio t (19 countries, 95 deposits) Scenario 1 (pol. Stable countries only) 20.2 Mio t (8 countries, 13 deposits) Scenario 2a (intact democracy) 19.9 Mio t (7 countries, 10 deposits) Scenario 2b (sufficient environm. performance) 8.8 Mio t (4 countries*, 4 deposits) *Austria, Germany, Norway, Sweden 7.CONCLUSION The complex situation suggests that despite seemingly sufficient resources for centuries, the rapidly increasing demand for high-quality graphite, particularly for EV, must be assessed critically due to the external and internal risks described. It is for this reason, among others, that the European Commission has classified graphite as a critical raw material. Table 3 shows that 57.99% of global graphite resources are located in areas with Neoproterozoic sedimentary sequences. With a further restriction to areas located in politically stable countries with sufficient democratic conditions and adequate environmental protection, only 3.8 Mio t remain in three European countries only (Austria, Czech Rep., Germany). External risks, which are beyond the consumer's control, are more difficult to manage than internal risks ("obstacles"), which potential consumers can address proactively. Graphite consumers would be well advised to diversify their sources of supply and also to develop own graphite resources (backward integration). There are a number of promising areas, particularly in known metallogenic districts, including those in politically stable countries. Within such areas, the probability of discovering new deposits is greater than outside of them. REFERENCES Barghamadi, M., et al. (2025): Australian graphite: A path to a global battery market opportunity. EP20251656 Block, S., Emerson, J. W., Esty, D. C., de Sherbinin, A., Wendling, Z. A., et al. (2024). 2024 Environmental Performance Index. New Haven, CT: Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy. epi.yale.edu Summerfield, D., 2019. Australian Resource Reviews: Graphite 2018. Geoscience Australia, Canberra. U.S. Geological Survey (2025): Mineral commodity summaries 2025 (ver. 1.2, March 2025): U.S. Geological Survey, 212 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/mcs2025.
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