565 reinforcement or duplication of critical transport, pumping, and classification infrastructure, sharply reducing capital efficiency (Lavoie et al., 2008). Figure 4. Bottleneck and Capacity Gain Map identifying the strategic transition from Baseline to Alternative 4. 5. STRATEGIC DISCUSSION AND RISK ASSESSMENT 5.1 Systemic Resilience and Probability of Success The primary value of the Stochastic Dynamic Simulation lies in its ability to quantify the hidden risks that deterministic mass balances fail to capture, particularly under the stress of a 76% increase in mass pull. Even with downstream capacity expansion in place, the dynamic model shows that the system’s resilience remains critically low without further intervention. • Risk Quantification: Monte Carlo iterations (n=50) demonstrate that the probability of meeting the 2030 production targets remains below 15% if the rest of the plant operates under its current configuration. • Stochastic Interactions: This low success rate is driven by the interaction between declining head grades and the mechanical limits of the ore feeding (TR-1090) and slurry pumping (BP-2020) circuits. In the Miski Mayo circuit, small variances in feed rate or pump sump levels, inherent to stochastic operation, compound into systemic transient choking events. Without the synchronization provided by Alternative 4, these assets trigger upstream interlocks that lead to unpredictable plant stoppages, preventing the plant from fully capturing the benefits of the expanded downstream capacity. 5.2 Economic Guardrails and the Limit of Diminishing Returns The use of Unitary Value at Cost (VAC) as a decision metric provides a clear financial guardrail, preventing over-capitalization in areas with diminishing returns. • Capital Intensity: The sharp increase in unit cost from 1.07 USD/t to 1.8 USD/t when attempting to exceed 5.0 Mtpa defines a critical economic threshold. • Investment Optimization: Beyond Alternative 4, additional capacity gains require major reinforcement or duplication of critical transport, pumping, and screening infrastructure, which
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTM0Mzk2