566 would significantly dilute the project’s Net Present Value (NPV). By synchronizing the controlling constraints across these circuits, Alternative 4 secures the highest return on invested capital and avoids the saturation traps commonly observed in brownfield expansions (P. Lavoie et al., 2008). 5.3 Transition to Dynamic Operational Planning This study confirms that, as orebodies become more complex and grades decline, the mining industry must transition from static capacity planning to dynamic, time-dependent simulation. • Proactive Constraint Management: The model’s ability to predict the migration of bottlenecks allows the operation to act proactively rather than reactively to mineralogical and throughput changes. • Operational Rhythm: Implementing the Alternative 4 roadmap provides a stabilized operating rhythm to the plant, reducing its sensitivity to feed variability and synchronizing the critical feeding, pumping, and screening circuits that define sustainable throughput performance. 6. CONCLUSIONS The development of a high-fidelity Stochastic Dynamic Simulation for the Miski Mayo concentrator has evolved from a theoretical exercise into a critical strategic decision-making tool. By integrating four years of historical reliability data within a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) framework, this study provides a robust technical roadmap for navigating the challenges of declining ore grades through 2030. The following conclusions summarize the key findings of this research: • Model Validation and Reliability: The simulation achieved a throughput variance of less than 1% relative to 2024 historical production. This high degree of accuracy, grounded in two-parameter Weibull distributions for more than 50 asset groups, confirms that the Stochastic Dynamic Simulation effectively captures the complex interactions between equipment reliability and process variability. • Strategic Selection of Alternative 4: The analysis identifies Alternative 4 as the optimal investment path. By synchronizing the critical feeding, pumping, and screening circuits, this configuration enables a sustainable throughput of 4.96 Mtpa (2,718 t/h of wet feed), maintaining an OEE above 88% while controlling the transient choking effects observed under the expanded mass-pull condition. • Risk Mitigation and Resilience: A deterministic approach to capacity planning is no longer sufficient for complex orebodies. Stochastic modeling shows that, without the implementation of Alternative 4, the probability of meeting the 2030 production targets remains below 15%. This confirms that the proposed CAPEX is not merely an expansion initiative, but a necessary condition for operational resilience. • Economic Optimization (The Sweet Spot): The use of the Unitary VAC metric established a clear financial ceiling for the project. While Alternative 4 maintains a competitive cost structure (0.87– 1.07 USD/t), any attempt to exceed 5.0 Mtpa drives the VAC to approximately 1.8 USD/t due to the need for major reinforcement or duplication of critical transport, pumping, and classification infrastructure, clearly identifying the point of diminishing returns for capital allocation. In conclusion, this research confirms that dynamic simulation is the most effective methodology for supporting brownfield investment decisions in complex concentrator systems. By revealing the migration of constraints and prioritizing capital toward the synchronization of feeding, pumping, and screening infrastructure, the Stochastic Dynamic Simulation framework enables Miski Mayo to move from reactive
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