interlocks that lead to unpredictable plant stoppages, preventing the plant from fully capturing the benefits of the expanded downstream capacity. 5.2 Economic Guardrails and the Limit of Diminishing Returns The use of Unitary Value at Cost (VAC) as a decision metric provides a clear financial guardrail, preventing over-capitalization in areas with diminishing returns. • Capital Intensity: The sharp increase in unit cost from 1.07 USD/t to 1.8 USD/t when attempting to exceed 5.0 Mtpa defines a critical economic threshold. • Investment Optimization: Beyond Alternative 4, additional capacity gains require major reinforcement or duplication of critical transport, pumping, and screening infrastructure, which would significantly dilute the project’s Net Present Value (NPV). By synchronizing the controlling constraints across these circuits, Alternative 4 secures the highest return on invested capital and avoids the saturation traps commonly observed in brownfield expansions (P. Lavoie et al., 2008). 5.3 Transition to Dynamic Operational Planning This study confirms that, as orebodies become more complex and grades decline, the mining industry must transition from static capacity planning to dynamic, time-dependent simulation. • Proactive Constraint Management: The model’s ability to predict the migration of bottlenecks allows the operation to act proactively rather than reactively to mineralogical and throughput changes. • Operational Rhythm: Implementing the Alternative 4 roadmap provides a stabilized operating rhythm to the plant, reducing its sensitivity to feed variability and synchronizing the critical feeding, pumping, and screening circuits that define sustainable throughput performance. 6 CONCLUSIONS The development of a high-fidelity Stochastic Dynamic Simulation for the Miski Mayo concentrator has evolved from a theoretical exercise into a critical strategic decision-making tool. By integrating four years of historical reliability data within a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) framework, this study provides a robust technical roadmap for navigating the challenges of declining ore grades through 2030. The following conclusions summarize the key findings of this research: • Model Validation and Reliability: The simulation achieved a throughput variance of less than 1% relative to 2024 historical production. This high degree of accuracy, grounded in two-parameter Weibull distributions for more than 50 asset groups, confirms that the Stochastic Dynamic Simulation effectively captures the complex interactions between
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