and 1.07 USD/t. • The Optimal Alternative (Alt. 4): This configuration reaches 4.96 Mtpa (2,718 t/h of wet feed) by synchronizing capacity across the feeding conveyors, primary cyclone feed pumps, and screening circuits, while maintaining an Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) above 88%. • Saturation Zone (Alt. 5+): Attempting to exceed 5.0 Mtpa causes the unitary VAC to jump to ~1.8 USD/t, as the required expansion moves beyond coordinated debottlenecking and into major reinforcement or duplication of critical transport, pumping, and classification infrastructure, sharply reducing capital efficiency (Lavoie et al., 2008). Figure 4. Bottleneck and Capacity Gain Map identifying the strategic transition from Baseline to Alternative 4. 5 STRATEGIC DISCUSSION AND RISK ASSESSMENT 5.1 Systemic Resilience and Probability of Success The primary value of the Stochastic Dynamic Simulation lies in its ability to quantify the hidden risks that deterministic mass balances fail to capture, particularly under the stress of a 76% increase in mass pull. Even with downstream capacity expansion in place, the dynamic model shows that the system’s resilience remains critically low without further intervention. • Risk Quantification: Monte Carlo iterations (n=50) demonstrate that the probability of meeting the 2030 production targets remains below 15% if the rest of the plant operates under its current configuration. • Stochastic Interactions: This low success rate is driven by the interaction between declining head grades and the mechanical limits of the ore feeding (TR-1090) and slurry pumping (BP-2020) circuits. In the Miski Mayo circuit, small variances in feed rate or pump sump levels, inherent to stochastic operation, compound into systemic transient choking events. Without the synchronization provided by Alternative 4, these assets trigger upstream
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