223 role as a critical enabler of reliable power systems — particularly in economies with energyintensive industrial sectors — by providing dispatchable generation that delivers both flexibility and system stability (Gürsan & Gooyert, 2020) and is the fossil fuel with lower emissions. As wind and solar capacity expand, electricity systems are becoming increasingly variable and operationally complex. Higher shares of variable renewable energy introduce challenges related to intermittency, reduced system inertia, tighter operating margins, and growing requirements for balancing and reserve capacity. Natural gas addresses these challenges by combining firm capacity, operational flexibility, and cost predictability. 3.1 Firm Capacity and Operational Flexibility In systems with high renewable penetration, security of supply depends on the availability of firm, dispatchable capacity. Natural gas fulfills this function. Unlike intermittent renewable sources, gas-fired power plants can deliver controllable output independent of weather conditions, ensuring grid stability, meeting peak demand, and supporting industrial continuity. System modeling confirms that even highly decarbonized systems require a non-trivial share of firm capacity to maintain reliability. Estimates suggest that approximately 200–300 MW of firm, dispatchable capacity may be required per gigawatt of installed variable renewable energy, even when supported by storage (Clark & McGregor, 2024). Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) are complementary in function. CCGTs provide efficient, large-scale generation suited to baseload and mid-merit operation6, while OCGTs deliver rapid-response capability for peak demand and contingency events. Together they form a flexible backbone that enables higher renewable penetration without compromising system reliability. 3.2 Cost Predictability and System Economics System-level analyses indicate that maintaining a modest share of firm, dispatchable capacity can significantly reduce total system costs. Scenarios incorporating approximately 15–25% natural gas-based firm capacity show cost reductions of 30–40% relative to fully renewable systems relying exclusively on variable generation and large-scale storage (Clark & McGregor, 2024; Ordoudis et al., 2018). These differences reflect the high costs associated with overbuilding capacity, deploying long-duration storage, and managing balancing requirements under prolonged renewable shortfall. It is important to note that these estimates are scenario-dependent and sensitive to storage cost assumptions. As battery storage costs continue to decline, the relative cost advantage of gasbacked systems will narrow over time. The argument for gas is therefore strongest in the near- 6 Mid-merit operation refers to power plants that run regularly—but not continuously—to balance efficiency and flexibility, adjusting output to follow demand and complement variable renewable generation.
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