224 to-medium term — roughly 2026–2035 — and weakens as storage technology matures. This has direct implications for the transition sequencing proposed in Section 6. 3.3 Security of Supply and the Supply Chain Dependency The contribution of natural gas to system reliability depends fundamentally on the robustness of its supply chain. Gas-fired power plants can only provide firm and flexible generation if upstream production, transport infrastructure, and delivery systems operate consistently. Unlike fuels that can be stored on-site, natural gas depends on continuous delivery through pipelines or LNG logistics. This creates vulnerabilities where infrastructure is constrained, lacks redundancy, or is exposed to operational risks. International experience underscores these risks. The European energy crisis of 2022 demonstrated how gas supply constraints can drive sharp increases in electricity prices and force a temporary return to carbon-intensive generation. The 2021 Texas blackout illustrated how disruptions in gas supply can cascade through electricity systems. Neither case maps directly onto Peru’s situation — both involved different infrastructure configurations and external shocks — but both confirm that gas-backed reliability is only as strong as the supply chain that supports it. For Peru, these lessons carry specific weight. Recent supply disruptions have already exposed the limitations of a non-redundant gas transport network. The gap between domestic gas availability and reliable, deliverable energy is precisely where Peru’s structural advantage argument is most vulnerable — and where investment is most urgently required. 4. Peru’s Structural Position and the Three-Scenario Analysis The previous section established the system-level role of natural gas in modern electricity systems. This section examines how those properties translate into Peru’s specific context — and whether the structural advantage is real, sustainable, and deliverable. 4.1 Structure of Peru’s Energy System Peru’s energy system reflects a dual reality. On the one hand, it remains significantly dependent on fossil fuels. Imported oil products have historically dominated the primary energy mix, playing a central role in transport, logistics, and certain industrial applications — and exposing key sectors to international price volatility. On the other hand, the energy matrix has evolved in a way that creates favorable conditions for a differentiated transition pathway. Natural gas has consolidated as a major energy source, while hydropower continues to provide a stable foundation for electricity generation. Non-conventional renewables — particularly wind and solar — are expanding, supported by a pipeline of approximately 1,260 MW under construction as of early 2026 (Osinergmin, 2026). This is a meaningful addition, though it remains modest relative to the overall generation mix.
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