59 Figure 1 - Production scheduling and associated water demand for South American porphyry copper under the IEA STEPS scenario (2025–2050). a: copper demand versus scheduled production (Mt Cu/year). b: annual production balance (Mt Cu/year). c: active versus exhausted deposits. D: annual water requirements (Mm³/year) and water intensity (m³/t Cu). Figure 1 illustrates the alignment of South American porphyry production capacity with projected demand from 2024 to 2027, after which a deficit emerges as resources are insufficient to meet demand. This deficit primarily reflects the assumption that South America maintains a constant 46% share of global production, for comparison, at the global scale, a deficit emerges later, around 2040. Annual water requirements broadly follow the trajectory of production, increasing with rising demand and slowing after 2036 as production declines. Water intensity per ton of copper increases continuously over time, reflecting the progressive activation of lower-grade deposits. These results reflect the grade-based scheduling and linear interpolation of IEA demand; alternative scheduling strategies or demand trajectories could alter the timing and magnitude of deficits. For comparison, the deficit begins earlier under the NZE scenario (2033) and later under APS (2039), reflecting higher copper intensity of decarbonization and electrification pathways. 3.3 Results: Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Mining Water Stress 3.3.1 Spatial Distribution of Extractable Water Climate-informed extractable water availability in South America is derived from HyIR
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