4.3. Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCDA) The analysis positions geothermal as the superior option (4.50/5.00), surpassing hydroelectricity (3.55) and the Solar+BESS alternative (2.95). This is due to the weight of "Supply Security" (35%), where geothermal scores (5/5) due to its climatic independence (from droughts and solar intermittency). Additional factors such as Logistical Synergy and Sustainability (15% each) consolidate its advantage thanks to operational proximity (<100 km) and supply decarbonization. 4.4. Financial Analysis: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) For the Achumani Project (100 MW), an LCOE of 65.64 USD/MWh was calculated using the annualized cost method. Conservative parameters for the Andean region were assumed (Lund & Toth, 2021; IRENA, 2023): optimized CAPEX of $4,800/kW, OPEX of $120/kW-year, 30-year useful life, and WACC of 8.0%. The calculation determined a Total Annual Cost of $54.6 MUSD (Capital: $42.6M + Operation: $12.0M) which, divided by a net generation of 832,200 MWh/year (95% Plant Factor), results in a competitive tariff. This value acts as a fixed price ("Hedge") for 30 years, protecting the mine from spot market volatility and being much lower than the thermal marginal cost (>$140 USD/MWh). 4.5. Competitiveness and Risk Analysis The geothermal LCOE is situated in a strategic range ($65-75 USD/MWh) compared to its alternatives (Table 6). Although the grid spot price may be lower in wet years, geothermal eliminates the risk of "Unsupplied Energy" during droughts. Sensitivity analysis confirms its robustness: even a 20% CAPEX overrun would raise the tariff to only ~$76 USD/MWh, remaining competitive. Furthermore, cross-risk analysis (Table 7) highlights geothermal resilience against climatic and social crises. Table 6 – Cost Competitiveness Matrix (LCOE). Technology Estimated LCOE (USD/MWh) Critical Attribute Geothermal (Achumani) 65 - 75 Firm Power (24/7) Solar Photovoltaic (PV) 35 - 45 Intermittent (Day only) Solar PV + Batteries (BESS) 85 - 110 Costly due to storage Thermal (Diesel/RER) 120 - 180 High variable cost and CO₂ Spot Price SEIN (Average) 50 - 60 Volatile (Hydrological risk) Table 7 – Cross-risk analysis (Hydro vs. Geothermal). Risk Factor Hydroelectric Energy Geothermal Energy Climate Dependenc e CRITICAL: Vulnerable to severe droughts (29% drop in 2023). NULL: Does not depend on rain, sun, or wind. Operates 24/7 the same in winter or summer. Social Conflict HIGH: Competition for water with agriculture and communities. LOW: Closed loop of brines; does not consume fresh water. 136
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