From Offsets To Outcomes: Re-Framing Nature-Based Solutions As People-Centred Processes *Ed O'Keefe1, Laura Bores2, Loïs Toumieux3 1CEO of Synergy Global Consulting (*Presenting author: eokeefe@synergy-global.net) 2Senior Consultant at Synergy Global Consulting 3Junior Consultant at Synergy Global Consulting Abstract Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have emerged as a central mechanism through which the mining sector seeks to reconcile expanding mineral demand under the green energy transition with climate and biodiversity objectives. Understood as approaches capable of delivering simultaneous environmental and social benefits, NbS are increasingly adopted through biodiversity offsets, ecosystem restoration, and forest-carbon initiatives in the sector. Yet growing evidence indicates a persistent gap between these ambitions and outcomes on the ground, particularly in contexts where projects interact with resource-dependent communities and complex governance environments. This paper demonstrates how this implementation gap stems less from gaps in ecological knowledge or standards than from insufficient attention to the social and economic assumptions embedded within project design. Drawing on interdisciplinary literature, practitioner experience, and insights from NbS implementation, the paper diagnoses three structural drivers of this gap. First, the dominance of technical and ecological framings that obscure the sociopolitical processes through which outcomes are produced, leading to simplified assumptions about behaviour change. Second, limited social and economic analysis in early project stages, which may result in theories of change being built on untested assumptions about incentives, governance capacity, and local ownership. Third, how these dynamics contribute to communities being positioned primarily as risks to be managed or beneficiaries of compensation, rather than as active agents in shaping environmental outcomes. Building on this diagnosis, the paper proposes a practical framework for identifying and testing key social assumptions within NbS project design. Focusing on three critical assumption areas – local ownership and governance, economics and behaviour, and social impact and scalability, it outlines key questions and data requirements across project stages to support more robust, adaptive, and context-sensitive decision-making. The aim is not to add new procedural requirements, but to strengthen existing project cycles by embedding social analysis earlier and more systematically. The paper concludes that treating NbS as socioeconomic as well as ecological interventions is essential for improving both conservation effectiveness and investment outcomes. For the mining sector, moving from offsets to outcomes requires reframing NbS as people-centred processes, ensuring that the green 69
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