transition delivers durable economic and environmental gains alongside inclusive and equitable societal benefits. Keywords Nature-based Solutions (NbS), Green Energy Transition, Just Transformation, Social Inclusions, Community Participation, Assumption Testing, Adaptive Management, Inclusive Governance, Sustainable Development. 1. DIAGNOSING THE SOCIAL IMPLEMENTATION GAP IN NATURE BASED SOLUTIONS 1.1. Introduction - The Turn to NbS and the Social Determinants of Outcomes As demand for critical minerals accelerates under the green energy transition, with consumption for some minerals projected to increase up to sixfold by 2050, the mining sector has become central to decarbonisation efforts while simultaneously intensifying climate, biodiversity, and land-use pressures (Greenfield & Benato, 2022). Mined materials remain indispensable to renewable energy systems and low-carbon infrastructure, yet mining activities themselves remain carbon-intensive, accounting for an estimated 4-7% of global greenhouse gas emissions from extraction, processing, and energy use (UNEP FI, 2024). In response to growing investor and regulatory pressure, more than 75% of metals and mining companies have articulated net-zero emissions objectives (Future Minerals Forum, 2025). Yet these commitments coincide with a rapid expansion of mining’s physical footprint. Mining surfaces have increased by more than 50% since 2000 and are projected to continue growing – heightening risks to ecosystems and resource-dependent communities (Stanimirova et al., 2024). Industrial mining is a major driver of deforestation and is disproportionately concentrated in ecologically and socially vulnerable areas: around 86% of metal mines are located in regions of high or intermediate plant biodiversity, and over half of energy-transition mineral projects are situated on or near Indigenous lands (IRENA, 2025; Murguía et al., 2016). This raises critical questions about whether the green energy transition can deliver not only emissions reductions, but also a just transition that avoids transferring social and environmental costs onto the communities and geographies most affected by extraction. Within this context, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) ranging from biodiversity offsets (BO) and ecosystem restoration to forest-carbon mechanisms such as ‘Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation’ (REDD+), have been promoted as mechanisms to reconcile extraction with conservation and climate mitigation. In the mining sector, NbS gained traction in the early 2000s alongside carbon markets and voluntary conservation finance and have since been mainstreamed through corporate commitments and international institutions like the World Bank (Bull, et al., 2016). Encouraged as win-win solutions capable of delivering 70
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