2502 Weighting Judgments Weights are theory-driven and analytically justified, but future versions may test alternative calibrations. Political Economy Complexity Elite protection networks, corruption channels, electoral brokerage, and informal authority systems are difficult to quantify fully through administrative data. Temporal Constraints The model combines sources from different periods, although harmonized for analytical consistency. 7.6 Future Research Future versions of the TLRI should: • move to district-level geospatial estimation • incorporate panel data and yearly trend analysis • test predictive power against conflict events • include electoral and governance variables • refine social legitimacy indicators using surveys or perception data • integrate satellite and environmental monitoring layers 7.7 Transferability Although developed using Peru’s gold sector, the framework is adaptable to other extractive contexts: • Colombia (informal gold districts) • Ghana (artisanal gold clusters) • Democratic Republic of Congo (ASM cobalt zones) • Bolivia and Ecuador (hybrid mining territories) The modular design allows local recalibration while preserving the central concept: legitimacy competition as governance risk. 8. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INDUSTRY This paper developed and operationalized the Territorial Legitimacy Risk Index (TLRI) as an early warning framework to identify territories where illegal mining may evolve into a governance competitor. The empirical results demonstrate that mining governance stress in Peru is highly concentrated rather than generalized. A limited number of regions accumulate the strongest combinations of territorial informality, illicit finance, institutional fragility, disruption capacity, and formal gold overlap. Three strategic conclusions emerge: 1. Territorial Presence Matters Illegal mining risk rises where informal actors accumulate durable territorial scale. 2. Economic Embeddedness Sustains Resilience Where illegal mining becomes economically central, suppression costs rise and social tolerance expands. 3. Governance Volatility Creates Opportunity Unstable or ambiguous regulatory frameworks can strengthen adaptive informal systems. Implications for Industry For mining companies and investors, illegal mining should not be viewed only as a compliance or security issue. It can affect: • concession stability
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